How would the proposed PAT rule affect Ryan Succop?

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Back in January, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell expressed his desire to change the rules for extra points. According to NFL.com, that change may be arriving very soon.

NFL Media Reporter Judy Battista reported on Monday that the league is considering moving all extra point attempts from the 2-yard line to the 25-yard line, making every attempt a 42-yard kick.

How would Chiefs kicker Ryan Succop have fared with this rule change during the 2013 season? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

In Succop’s five seasons with the Chiefs, he has attempted 47 field goals from a 40-49 yard range, successfully hitting 35 of them. That’s a completion percentage of 74.4 percent.

In the 2013 season Succop nailed every one of his 52 extra point attempts, a 100 percent completion rate.

Assuming that Succop would retain his career percentage if each of his extra point attempts were from 43 yards away instead of the current 20-yard attempt, he would have completed only 37 of his extra point attempts and missed 15.

How would this have affected the Chiefs’ 2013 season? The team finished with an 11-5 season record, earning the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs and falling to Indianapolis in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs had two games decided by very close margins, defeating the Dallas Cowboys 17-16 in Week 2 and the Houston Texans 17-16 in Week 7.

Let’s say at least two of Succop’s 15 missed kicks were during the Dallas and Texans games. That would mean the Chiefs would have lost both games, bringing their record to 9-7. The Chiefs still would have made the playoffs, but they would have switched seeds with the San Diego Chargers, who also finished 9-7 but beat the Chiefs twice during the regular season.

That means the Chiefs would have played the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round instead of the Colts. Who is to say what would have happened in that game? And all of this change would have been caused by how long an extra point is.

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  • Anonymous

    You have to factor in the kickers on opposing teams too. Maybe Dan Bailey or Randy Bullock misses in the game against KC. It goes both ways.