Drafting is one of the hardest things for teams to do each year, having the first overall draft pick can be scary, you draft the right guy you look like a genius, you draft the wrong guy you look like a donkey.
The Texans have the #1 pick in the draft many people think they should pick a QB others say no, history seems to agree with not drafting a QB in the first round and here is why.
I went all the way back to 1998 and analyzed all of the 1st round QB picks and the data is pretty scary. 1998 was a great draft for one team and horrible for another, those two teams were the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. One team got Peyton Manning arguably the best QB ever; the other team got Ryan Leaf arguably the biggest bust of all time.
Both guys were considered worthy of the #1 overall pick, obviously that was true for one and not the other, Colts fans are happy their team picked the right guy.
So how hard is it to draft a franchise QB in the first round? Since 1998 there have been 44 QBs who were selected in the first round. Obviously there are only 32 teams and not all teams have a franchise QB right now, a lot of those picks were used on someone who couldn’t cut it as a starter in the NFL.
44 picks and I only found 12 guys that you could argue are franchise QBs: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton Andrew Luck Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.
Looking at these names some more can be taken off the list. Luck and Newton have only played in the league a short time, they have shown their potential but no one knows if they will flame out or get hurt. Rivers, Cutler, Ryan, and Stafford haven’t been to a super bowl Super Bowl.
That means only 27% of the time does a 1st round QB workout long term for a franchise. 73% of the time it doesn’t work and sometimes ends very badly, see Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez.
So should the Texans take a shot on a 27% out payout? If they do pick a QB with this years #1 pick will that player be a Peyton Manning or a Ryan Leaf?