17. Detroit Lions (Vegas odds: 40-1) – Maybe a change at the head coaching position was what the Lions needed to take the next step. Jim Caldwell didn’t have a ton of playoff success in Indy, but he’s a coach who knows how to win football games. This roster is full of talented players.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (Vegas odds: 32-1) - The oddsmakers like this one more than we do, as the Bengals have done absolutely nothing to inspire confidence in the playoffs over the last three years. With A.J. McCarron looking over Andy Dalton’s shoulder now, things might not go well in Cincy this season.
19. Miami Dolphins (Vegas odds: 50-1) - If absolutely everything went right for the Dolphins, with a new GM and hopefully a new locker room culture, they could make a run at a title. Problem is, Ryan Tannehill is going to have to take a major step forward, something we’re not convinced will happen.
20. Houston Texans (Vegas odds: 60-1) - The Texans are an intriguing pick, as J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney should be one of the top defensive duos in the league. Also, let’s not forget Houston was nearly the No. 1 seed in the AFC in 2012 before a late season collapse. Still, a ton of questions at QB remain and probably doom this team.
21. St. Louis Rams (Vegas odds: 50-1) - As mentioned in the intro, they’re ranked here because even making the playoffs is going to be a very difficult task. The Rams’ most likely chance would be to finish third in the NFC West, snag a No. 6 seed, and go on a playoff run for the ages on the back of emerging star Robert Quinn.
22. Kansas City Chiefs (Vegas odds: 50-1) - Fresh off an all-time playoff collapse and a brutal offseason that saw their roster get gouged, it’s easy to be down on the Chiefs going into 2014. Andy Reid has a ton of experience as a playoff coach, but we don’t envision Kansas City playing postseason football this year.
23. Baltimore Ravens (Vegas odds: 40-1) – Things just feel different for Baltimore, a team that has already lost so much from their Super Bowl team of 2012. Unless vintage Ray Lewis and Ed Reed walk through that door, our faith in Baltimore (and ultimately Joe Flacco) isn’t very high.
24. New York Jets (Vegas odds: 70-1) - They made our list of top-10 value bets, and if everything goes right they could be a player for a title in 2014, but it all seems like too much of a stretch. Both Michael Vick (sorry, Geno) and Chris Johnson will need to play like their Pro Bowl selves of many years ago.
25. Cleveland Browns (Vegas odds: 70-1) – He’s been the talk of the offseason recently; wouldn’t it be fitting for Johnny Football to make Browns football relevant again with a crazy run to an AFC North title? We’re not betting on it, but with that guy you never truly know. It’d certainly be fun to cover.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Vegas odds: 75-1) - The Bucs quietly got a ton better over the last few months, and Lovie Smith has a plethora of playoff coaching experience, but Tampa Bay winning it all is tough to truly see. Unless Josh McCown proves he should’ve been an All-Pro over the years, it’s not happening.
27. Buffalo Bills (Vegas odds: 75-1) - We’re officially in highly-unlikely-it’s-going-to-happen territory, but with all the tough luck the Bills have had recently, maybe they’ll catch a break? We think fans would be happy with a .500 year, as a deep playoff run would shatter all expectations.
28. Washington Redskins (Vegas odds: 55-1) - Hmm. These are odds are strange, as maybe Vegas is hoping to suck people in on betting that Robert Griffin III plays at his Baylor / 2012 level again? We don’t think it’s going to happen and would stay far, far away from touching this bet.
29. Oakland Raiders (Vegas odds: 155-1) – The Raiders, just like the Bucs, actually got a lot better over the last three months without a lot of people noticing. While they won’t win the Super Bowl in 2014, we don’t doubt they’ll be a much improved football team.
30. Tennessee Titans (Vegas odds: 90-1) - The Titans won’t come up one yard short this year, they’ll likely come up more like five wins short of a playoff berth. Ken Whisenhunt might succeed eventually in Tennessee, but this year it’s not going to happen. 900-1 seems like it’d be totally safe for the bookies as well.
31. Minnesota Vikings (Vegas odds: 120-1) - Unless Adrian Peterson rushes for 2,500 yards (not happening), the Vikings aren’t going to make the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl. It’s a full-fledged re-build going on in Minnesota, and maybe when the city hosts the game in 2018, they’ll be closer to winning it.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (Vegas odds: 250-1) - There’s no doubt they had a really good draft and Gus Bradley has his team trending in the right direction — but there’s a reason Jacksonville is the biggest long-shot to win the Super Bowl. We don’t agree with Vegas on all that much, but this assessment is spot on.