Rams host the 49ers: Odds and Prediction

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Los Angeles Rams Cheerleaders
Dec 11, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams cheerleaders during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Do we dare believe that the hapless San Francisco 49ers can get their second win of the season by sweeping the only team they have beaten in 2016, this second time being at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, December 24th at 1:25pm PT? Here are some things to take into consideration from a wagering perspective as the Niners take on the Rams.

Current line: Rams (-3.5), O/U at 40

Results from 2016 season:  49ers beat the Rams in their home-opener and only win all season by the unfathomable the score of 28-0.

49ers offense/defense:  Currently, the 49ers rank 29th in total offense and 23nd in offensive efficiency. Colin Kaepernick is ranked 30th with a score of (-217) in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) with a 55.0 QBR which ranks 23rd among QBs with a minimum of 180 passes.  49ers defense is currently ranked 30th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and 32nd in total defense. In terms of total team efficiency, 49ers are ranked 28th in total DVOA.

Rams offense/defense:  Currently, the Rams rank 32nd in total offense and 32nd in offensive efficiency.  Jared Goff has a score of (-575) in DYAR with a 24.6 QBR. Rams defense is currently ranked 15th in DVOA and 11th in total defense. In terms of total team efficiency, Los Angeles is ranked 29th in total DVOA.

Recent trends:

49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the NFC.  

49ers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

49ers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December.

49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games of week 16.  

49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  

Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.

Under is 7-0 in Rams last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 10-4 in 49ers last 14 vs. NFC West.


AROUND COVER32

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Uni Watch: With a little effort, L.A. could have gotten it right


Prediction:  

Though it may be hard to believe, the Rams are actually worse than the 49ers on offense. Jared Goff has looked lost and took a vicious hit from Richard Sherman last week and his start is contingent upon passing the concussion protocol.  But let’s not forget that the Rams offensive body of work in 2016 was largely shaped by small-town-sheriff-stuck-in-the-70’s Jeff Fisher, and since he was fired the Rams only game has been a Thursday night game, on the road at Seattle of all places.

A Thursday game last week means more rest for the Rams this week. And while the Los Angeles offense may be worse on paper than the 49ers, the Rams defense is significantly better than the league-worst 49ers defense. Given the significant discrepancy in defense, taken together with the 49ers offense being further decimated with injuries over the past two weeks and the fact that the Rams are playing at home and to avenge an embarrassing loss to start the season, we are going to have to go with L.A. to cover in a low scoring game.

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