Ty Montgomery Fantasy Analysis Post-Draft

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Dec 4, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Ty Montgomery (88) rushes with the football during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

cover32 writer, Andrew Erickson, will be providing a weekly fantasy column on all of the Packers players. 

NFL players these days are extremely versatile. We have got quarterbacks playing wide receiver, running backs playing wide receiver, and even wide receivers playing running back. What’s next? Kickers playing defensive line? Or even punters playing an actual role on offense? Who knows?!


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Value of Ty Montgomery

What is known is that the Green Bay Packers found themselves in an interesting situation last year, where they needed to turn to second-year wide receiver Ty Montgomery to become their starting running back.

While still rocking his 88 wide receiver jersey, Montgomery played well in limited action.

On 77 rushing attempts, he averaged 5.94 yards per carry with three touchdowns. With the Packers opting not to re-sign Eddie Lacy aka Sir Eats A Lot in the offseason, Montgomery looks to be in line for the starting running back position for Green Bay.

The easiest way to accumulate fantasy points in fantasy football is to score touchdowns: plain and simple.

Montgomery scored only three touchdowns last year and do not envision a significant increase in that next season. This is because the Packers will more often than not elect to throw when they enter the red zone.

Over the past three seasons, Aaron Rodgers averages 102 passing attempts and 25 passing touchdowns in the red zone alone. That is the same total amount of touchdowns Kirk Cousins threw using the entire field. Guarantee Kirk does “NOT LIKE THAT.” So what about our boys in the backfield? Do the running backs get the ball? Well…not really.

No Green Bay running back had more than 14 rushing attempts in the red zone last year. That total ranked 31st in the league.

One would think that Montgomery being a former wide receiver, might have some value in the red zone as maybe pass catcher.  Wrong again. Rodgers has so many better options to go to in the red zone that I cannot see Montgomery converting many touchdowns. Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb all had more red zone targets than Montgomery last season. Now, also factoring Martellus Bennett as another big target for Rodgers in the end zone, Montgomery’s receiving touchdown potential is very low.

Montgomery’s overall potential is that of a PPR running back playing for one of the best offenses in the NFL. However, despite having pass catching ability, Montgomery cannot be a startable option at running back because his role is severely limited in the offense.

Since Week 5 of the 2016 season, Montgomery averaged 10 offensive touches per game (combined rushing attempts and receptions). Of the Top 24 running backs in fantasy last year, the average amount of offensive touches they received per game was 18.5.

If Montgomery were to continue to average 10 offensive touches per game, he would end up scoring similar to how Matt Asiata (33rd overall) and Tim Hightower (37th overall), who also averaged 10 offensive touches.

Montgomery has a massive lack of touchdown upside and high volume potential, making it extremely hard to buy into the converted third-year running back.

Impact of the draft

Buying into Montgomery becomes even more difficult when looking at the fact that the Packers drafted three running backs in the 2017 NFL Draft: Jamaal Williams (4th round), Aaron Jones (5th round), and Devante Mays (7th round).

Williams is a tough inside runner, Jones is more of a pass-catching back, and Mays is a huge power running back.

The one positive thing to note is the Packers did not spend a high pick on any of these running backs which means they do have confidence in Montgomery. However, it seems like they are the only ones that do.

The only confident thing to say about Montgomery is he will be no more than an RB3. At an ADP of RB #24, his price far exceeds his value. So for that reason, be out on Ty Montgomery.

 

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