Sometimes during the fantasy season, the best moves are the ones you don’t make. You can go further than you think just by simply limiting dumb decisions and leaving the mistakes to the other players in your league.
On draft day, this means avoiding overvalued fantasy players. By passing on some of these overvalued players, and letting other people in your league over draft them, you allow them to take the unnecessary risks.
Although every situation is a little different, I think in general, overvalued players share these common characteristics.
- Lack of a proven track record
- Injury prone
- Good talent but play on a bad offense
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Now, just because I think a player is overvalued, doesn’t mean he’s a terrible option at the right price. And it certainly doesn’t mean you should avoid drafting him altogether. It simply means where they are being drafted is a little head scratching. Here are three WR’s that I feel are the best examples of this:
Tyreek Hill (4.10 ADP)
Where I Would Draft Him: Between 6-7th round
Tyreek Hill was one of the more exciting rookies last year for fantasy owners. Despite the slow start to the year he finished with 12 all-purpose touchdowns (six receiving, three rushing, three returns) and finished as a top 20 fantasy WR (19th overall). He was the
He was the Swiss army knife for a Kansas City offense that is always looking to manufacture yards any way they can. My problem with Hill isn’t his talent. He’s a versatile playmaker who can score touchdowns in multiple ways. My problem with Hill is he is being drafted between the 4th and 5th round ahead of at least five receivers I would rather have. Here are they are:
- Michael Crabtree
- Golden Tate
- Julian Edelman
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Willie Snead
All five of those WR’s have a consistent track record of fantasy production and play on offenses that like to throw the football. Oakland, Detroit, New England, Arizona, and New Orleans all ranked inside the top 13 in pass attempts. While Kansas City hasn’t ranked higher than 23rd since Andy Reid took over as the head coach in 2013. Kansas City struggles to throw the ball down the field with Alex Smith as their quarterback. This led to Tyreek Hill averaging 9.7 yards per catch last year, which ranked outside the top 100 at his position.
Aside from the obvious limitations of Alex Smith and the Kansas City passing offense, the other thing that concerns me with Hill is his touchdown dependency and boom or bust nature. He had six games with two or fewer receptions and two games with zero. When you combine that with the fact that half of his 12 touchdowns came from rushing and in the return game, that tells me he is heading for an inconsistent season and will most likely see a regressing in total touchdowns.
Sammy Watkins (3.11 ADP)
Where I Would Draft Him: 5th round
Sammy Watkins is another incredibly talented WR that is being completely overvalued for yet another year. The third year WR out of Clemson is plagued by two main drawbacks: injuries, and the horrendous Buffalo passing attack. Last season, Buffalo finished 30th in passing yards and dead last in pass attempts.
Even with the change from Rex Ryan to Sean McDermott at head coach, they still have Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and the offense will continue to revolve around LeSean McCoy. So even though he has accounted for 27 percent of the target share over the course of his career (when healthy), and occupies the largest piece of the pie, the pie is still small, which limits his upside.
Injuries are another huge concern for Watkins. He has only played 21 games in his first two seasons in the NFL, (eight last season) and until he finds a way to stay healthy for a full season, it is hard to justify taking him in the first three rounds.
Watkins is one of those WR’s who is being over drafted based, simply on potential. Although potential is important, and should absolutely be a factor, I prefer to avoid players like that in the first three rounds. Here are three WR’s I like a lot more than Watkins, that are currently being drafted behind him even though they are all much safer, more durable, and player on better passing offenses:
- Jarvis Landry
- Devante Adams
- Michael Crabtree
Donte Moncrief (7.01 ADP)
Where I would Draft Him: 9th round
Inconsistent usage and touchdown dependency are the two main reasons why I have Donte Moncrief as one of my three most overvalued fantasy wide receivers this year. You would think, being the number two target for an Andrew Luck led offense would be enough, but somehow, year-after-year we find that the only viable fantasy option in Indy continues to be T.Y. Hilton.
Moncrief only played in nine games last season and finished with seven touchdowns. On the surface that sounds great. However, despite the high touchdown total, Moncrief failed to produce a single 20-point fantasy week.
Aside from touchdowns, his numbers were extremely pedestrian (30 rec, 307 yds, 56 targets). The main thing that concerns me with Moncrief, is I feel a regression to the mean coming on touchdowns, and his other numbers from last year were nearly identical to his 2015 totals. To me, Moncrief is a somewhat TD dependent WR who has limited upside and is destined for another 60-70 rec, 600 yards, 5-7 TD season and I’m not overly intrigued by the idea of drafting that.
Here are some receivers being drafter after Moncrief that I like better:
- Pierre Garcon
- Jeremy Maclin
- Eric Decker
- Emmanuel Sanders