The NFL season is off to the races for all but two teams. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins will not see action this week due to inclement weather. The two teams will square off on Week 11 during their mutual bye week.
In the meantime, the Buffalo Bills sit atop the AFC East Division. The New England Patriots and New York Jets suffered losses to begin their seasons while the Dolphins are still standing on the sidelines.
So, with that being said, there isn’t any data and there have been no new observations regarding Miami from Week 1. We have learned nothing new about the Dolphins this week. The only available data is the preseason record. Just how good of a predictor is the preseason record for the regular season?
As it turns out, it is not a very good predictor at all. This is more than likely due to the fact that the players that see a heavy workload during the preseason aren’t the same ones playing during the regular season. This is because of the fact that the reserves are fighting for roster spots and for playing time during the preseason. Meanwhile, the starters are resting up for the regular season.
We here at cover32 took historical data for the Miami Dolphins dating back to 1976 and measured the win-percentages from each preseason and regular season. After recording all of the data and analyzing it, we came to the conclusion that there is not sufficient evidence to suggest a positive correlation between the two.
However, one interesting finding was the fact that the average win-percentage of the Dolphins’ preseasons and regular seasons dating back to 1976 were nearly identical at 56.7 and 55.7 percent, respectively. This was a curious finding, especially considering the fact that the two are not correlated on an aggregate level.
However, the median win-percentages for the Dolphins’ preseasons and regular seasons dating back to 1976 were not nearly as close. The median percentages were 50 and 56.2 percent, respectively.
The main motivation for this study was the fact that there will be an extended period of time between the preseason and regular season this year for Miami. After the analysis, we have not gained a stronger prediction tool for the 2017 regular season.
However, our staff will be creating a win-loss prediction for this season before the Dolphins take on the Chargers in Los Angeles. Be on the lookout for more to come!